A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
